The Clash of Civilizations Riots Model

Models for Society

All the things we may generally refer as "social issues" like politics, government, revolutions, culture evolution, religion, etc., appear to be inevitably linked with each other. It isn't easy to draw lines and create individual modeling for all the social effects we'd desire for Clash. This is why the three models proposed here covering society and its behavior should be seen as one, like sub-models of something bigger. Coherency between them has been carefully taken care of. Each one performs a particular task providing many of the elements we want, but some of the most interesting social effects are a result of the interactions between them three.

The three models are the Social Model, the Government Model and the Riots Model. I suggest you to read them in this same order for better understanding. This is what they do in a very general sense:

Social Model: Simulates culture evolution.

Government Model: Simulates politics within the civ's government.

Riots Model: Simulates people's discontent and what they do about it.

Note: Check out the new Coding The "Society Model" Structure!

Riots Model Version 2.0

Model Description
October/2001

I. Introduction

This model uses information from the social, government and economic models to create discontent measures in society. Discontent is then used to generate several different events from simple protests to revolutions and other major social events.

It's highly recommended to be familiar with the government and social models before reading this.

A better name for the model is "Happiness Model", but I'm keeping the current name to avoid updating all the references.

II. Model Overview

The model is really simple. Discontent is measured in several ways taking into account different factors. Discontent moves people to action with a specific intention depending on the source of discontent. Actions take the form of "events" happening in the civ with a probability given by the discontent level. Events give the player info about what's wrong in the civ, but can actually lead to dramatic changes, most of them in the govt (affecting the govt model), but even beyond, like creating new civs when actions pursue independence.

The model describes only how to create probabilities for the events. The events themselves are the interesting thing to deal with in game terms. Each event will have a procedure associated instructing the game engine what to do when the event occurs. In this document only a rough description of what happens when an event takes place is given.

III. Clash Society and Discontent

The people in a civ is divided in Ethnic Groups (EG) (defined in the social model) and they in time are divided in social classes (defined in the govt model). EG's are located at provinces (or mapsquares, depending on how we decide to implement that). The model creates measures of unhappiness at the social class level.

As can be concluded from the previous section, the model doesn't handle unhappiness via a single measure. It uses several measures, each associated with a specific source of unhappiness. These measures are called Pro-Active Feelings (PAFs), because the higher they are, the likelier people will take actions, mostly against the govt. But the name shouldn't confuse: A PAF is unhappiness.

The idea of using several unhappiness measures is to get better modeling of what happens when people is upset. Some people can be upset because they want their province to go independent from the empire, while others may be looking to change the type of govt. The outcome if either one is successful in trying to change things is very different. So, the difference between two PAF's is the goal the people is trying to accomplish through the actions the PAF triggers.

IV. Pro-Action Feelings

Nationalistic Rebellion Feeling (NRF): Discontent because the ethnic group the social class belongs to is ruled by another civ (a civ with another nationality). The EG feels "invaded", so it wants to form a civ of its own or join the civ of the same nationality if it already exists.

Self Determination Feeling (SDF): Unhappiness caused by the unfulfilled desired of having more influence in the decisions affecting the province. Includes the discontent caused by an ineffective local govt when this is caused in time by the incapacity of a (distant) central govt of being sensitive to the province's local problems (see more on govt's administration in the govt model). People's objective is to increase their power over the central govt and/or empower the local govt. If high enough, independence may also be a goal.

Anti-Discrimination Feeling (ADF): The civ's govt may discriminate people because of their nationality or the religion they follow and maybe enslave them, as described in the govt model. This PAF reflects the discontent caused by this discrimination (if it exists and affects the social class). Here the goal is to abolish the discriminations and enslavement.

Bad Policies Feeling (BAF): Discontent because of "incorrect" (as perceived by the social class) central govt policies. The goal is to make the govt change the policies.

Poor Welfare Feeling (PWF): Discontent mainly because of bad economic situation (poverty), but also includes the welfare produced by the level of civil rights and the administration effectiveness (see more on administration in the govt model).

Revolutionary Feeling (RF): The feeling that a dramatic change in regime is needed in the govt because its very essence and structure are "wrong".

Replace Ruler Feeling (RRF): Discontent caused by a ruler whose govt profile (govt preferences) is "wrong". This doesn't necessarily mean the govt is wrong, so it's centered at the person of ruler and just a change of ruler would be sufficient. As described in the govt model, the ruler not necessarily sets the govt profile as he wishes, and since society can see some of his intentions, people can react and oppose him if they don't like what the ruler is trying to do with the govt. RRF also include hating the ruler when he uses a Goons Squad (see Govt Model).

Note1: ADF is the feeling a discriminated person has. People who don't suffer discrimination have ADF=0. However, people not discriminated can be upset about the existence of discrimination, but it's measured within BAF.

Note2: NRF and SDF may seem similar, but there's a big difference. NRF exists in people who have a conflict of nationality with the civ's govt (and depends greatly on the level of nationalism), while SDF is strictly "operative", meaning the people feel things could be run better locally without (or lower) central govt's intervention.

Note3: SDF should not be confused with democratic aspirations. Model's equations will ensure that only social classes having access to power could have a non-zero SDF. So, for example, in antiquity social classes like nobility may desire more local power (i.e. for themselves) and be unhappy by not getting it, making SDF greater than zero. Democratic aspirations and any other regime related aspirations are exclusively measured in RF.

V. Events

These are the events the PAF's can trigger:

Verbally Exposing Discontent: In game terms is just a message the player sees where the annoyed people express their discontent and ask for a solution. The equations ensure this event has a higher probability than the rest events, so it works mostly as a warning.

Riots: The people go violent. A random amount of infrastructure is destroyed in the province where the event was called.

Revolutionary Forces Formation: In the province the event was called, a (people's) military unit is created and passed to AI control. Revolutionary units try to conquer the civ's capital. If they succeed, the ruler and govt are replaced. See below for more details on that. See also below how a "total" revolution can be triggered.

Guerrilla Forces Formation: In the province the event was called, a (people's) military unit is created and passed to AI control. The objective of guerrilla units is to liberate the province from the civ's control. If they achieve it, the province is annexed to a civ with matching nationality or, if such civ doesn't exist, a new civ is created.

Attempt to Murder the Ruler: Once the event is called, there's 50% chance the attempt is successful. If it isn't, a message is displayed informing the player of the attempt, which should warn him of how bad things are. If successful, the ruler is changed. See more about replacing the ruler below.

Military Coup: When the event is called, a number of the civ's military units (depending on the average values of the event probabilities along all EG's and all social classes) become "rebels" and pass to AI control. The rebels will try to conquer the civ's capital province. See below for what happens if they succeed. See also below how this can lead to a "civil war".

Army Betrayal: This is like the Revolutionary Forces Formation event, but instead of creating a people's military unit, a military unit already existent betrays the ruler and joins the revolution (becomes a revolutionary unit).

Declaring Independence: The province where the event was called becomes a new civ. Contiguous provinces' PAF's are checked to see if they would join the declaration.

Rebel Duke: A military/nobility leader in a province decides to decrease central govt's influence over the province. It's like a less radical form of independence declaration, where the local leaders just want more autonomy, but still find valuable belonging to the civ. The Province's Autonomy Level in the province is increased and associated Feudal Units are created (see Govt Model). See more of Feudal Units below.

The events, as mentioned before, are produced by the social classes. But a given event can be produced by only some classes. This is to avoid having the aristocrats rioting cities or peasants conducting military coups. The list of events a social class can call is defined by pre-settings (default settings or scenario designer settings)

VI. Computing PAF's and Events Probabilities

PAF's values are combined to compute the events probabilities. They're summed with different weights depending on the particular event. In particular some PAF's may have an associated weight of zero for some events, so, for example, the Replace Ruler Feeling doesn't affect the Guerrilla Forces Formation probability because the ethnic group wanting its freedom just doesn't care which particular ruler is in charge of the invasive civ.

The sum has also a "circumstances" term, which is explained later.

The higher the PAF sum is, the higher the probabilities for events. Four factors affect this basic rule:

1) The lower the civ's civil rights are (Civil Rights is a govt model's variable), the lower the events probabilities. This is to simulate a tight control by the govt. But it's a double-edged sword, because the low civil rights will increase the Poor Welfare Feeling. However, the model equations will make the "low civil rights" solution a good one in terms of lowering the overall chances of events. The cost of a low level of civil rights should appear in other aspects of the game, maybe in economic performance and/or tech development.

2) The higher the cultural attribute "aggressiveness" is, the higher the probability for all events.

3) If the govt uses "internal intelligence services", probabilities for violent events are lowered to reflect the govt's capacity to destroy attempts to threaten the establishment. This is like an extension of the "low civil rights" solution, but this one costs money.

4) Monetary aid from another civ could help organize dissidents, increasing event probabilities. (link with the Diplomacy Model)

Each time an event takes place, the govt model's variable "Empire's Stability" is decreased. ES represents people's perception of civ's stability. Events probabilities, in time, depend on this variable, having two effects: If ES is high, "conquered" peoples (ethnic groups not having the civ's nationality) can find valuable the stability and choose not to rebel (pax romana effect). On the other side, if ES is low, people may feel it's a good opportunity to take advantage of the apparent unstable situation to go into action, increasing the event probability.

Because of the circular relation between ES and events, a civ facing some events could see itself in a escalation of troubles if the ruler is not able to find long term solutions.

The Circumstances Term (CT)

This term is used to include in the unhappiness modeling things that happen in the civ that may upset a social class in a particular time. For example, a peace treaty signed that annoys the military. Or the ruler closing the parliament, outraging the people. Or an expropriation of private property that pisses off the aristocracy. Things that, at the moment when they happen, produce an immediate increase of unhappiness, but are forgotten as time passes by. The model will increase the value of the Circumstances Term when a thing like that happens. To simulate the "forgetting", the model decreases the CT slowly each game turn.

Doing this, it'll be probable that after "bad" decisions, the ruler will face events against him. And they can be accumulated: if in a short period he makes a series of decisions upsetting classes, chances are he'll suffer the consequences.

A specific list of things that can increase the CT is not available yet.

VII. Replacing the Ruler and/or the Government

This can happen as a result of:

1) A revolutionary or rebel military unit entering the capital: Both the govt and the ruler are replaced. The govt profile and the ruler's govt profile (in the govt model) are made equal to the mentality of the successful unit. In order to simulate the change of ruler (the ruler was changed but the player remains the same), the "govt window" becomes unavailable for player intervention for some years or game turns. After that, the game resumes normally.

2) A successful attempt of murdering the ruler: Just the ruler's govt profile is changed (made equal to the social class' mentality calling the event) and the govt window becomes unavailable for some time.

VIII. Revolutions, Civil Wars and Internal Military Opponent

There'll be a civ-level variable called "Civ's Unrest Status" that can take 3 possible values:

0, meaning "Normal"

1, meaning "under revolution"

2, meaning "under civil war"

When the civ has a Civ's Unrest Status of 1 or 2, other aspects of the game should be affected. The economic and tech development performances should lower. Maybe also in the diplomatic side peace treaties and alliances with other powers should be ignored. These possible effects should be discussed in the future.

VIII.1. Revolutions

The event "Revolutionary Forces Formation" creates revolutionary military units, but the mere presence of these units in the map doesn't represent a revolution. This is made so in order to make the game smoother and to "protect the game from the probabilities". The event probability can be low and yet be possible for it to happen, just because the game engine is rolling dices every game turn. The game would be very unstable if we change the Civ's Unrest Status to "under revolution" simply by one revolutionary unit appearing. A revolution is considered so when "enough" revolutionary units are on the map, where "enough" is a number TBD.

The moment the status is changed to "under revolution", the following things happen:

1) The "Empire's Stability" variable is halved. This will increase all event probabilities with a potential of great damage overall to the civ in the years the revolution lasts. It also has implications in the govt model.

2) Just in this game turn, the Revolutionary Feeling PAF is artificially increased to encourage the formation of a big revolutionary army simulating a "call for revolution". Note doing this could imply the formation of different revolutionary forces, that is, revolutionaries supporting different regimes. Remember a revolution, as handled in this model, has as a goal a change of regime. So, in a revolution there can be several sides fighting each other trying to put each their regime in the govt.

3) The effect of the Civil Rights and the "internal intelligence services" is ignored in the calculation of event probabilities, reflecting govt's lost of control over the people. This will increase the event probabilities of all kinds.

The revolution is considered finished when a revolutionary unit conquers the capital (replacing govt and ruler) and no revolutionary units of other faction exist. Or, if all revolutionaries are killed by the player. The end of the revolution transforms all revolutionary units into normal military units and the Civ's Unrest Status is set back to "normal". The Empire's Stability is increased a little.

VIII.2. Civil Wars

A civil war can only be invoked by the ruler. In order to do it, at least one of these two conditions must be met:

a) There's at least one revolutionary or rebel unit on the map. (i.e. a revolution or military coup can be transformed into a civil war)

b) A province has just declared independence. (secession)

When a civil war is invoked, like in a revolution, the Empire's Stability is halved and the effect of Civil Rights and internal intelligence services vanishes in the calculation of event probabilities. What the ruler gets is the formation of loyal people's military units in all provinces so he can fight the rebels. The latter happens only at the moment of invoking the civil war. Also, the declaration of independence (if that caused the civil war) is left without effect (no new civ formed) while at the same time no "Declaring Independence" event can take place during the time the civil war develops.

In a civil war it is considered that there're only two sides (loyal and rebel). If the "Revolutionary Forces Formation" event takes place, it won't create a revolutionary unit, but a rebel one.

A civil war ends when all rebel units are destroyed or when the ruler decides it should end. The latter may sound strange, but it's only a way to simulate a treaty between the ruler and the rebels where the ruler accepts losing all provinces currently occupied by the rebels. These provinces will form a new civ. This shows the ruler would have to be sick of the civil war and have no hope of winning it completely to opt to arbitrarily finish it.

As you can see, a civil war is something a player would rarely choose to call. It's meant to be the last option of a desperate situation, where he sees no way of stopping a military coup or revolution or where the independence declaration of a province or group of provinces would mean a huge loss to the empire and there appears to be no way of crashing the independence with the current army. I think here lies the right incentive for not making attractive a civil war when a far away province (colony) declares independence, but making it worth the effort if the province is an important (close) one.

VIII.3. Internal Military Opponents

The model defines 4 types of internal military opponents: guerrilla, revolutionaries, rebels and feudal units. The distinction is relevant to get the right results in different situations and historic frameworks.

Guerrilla: The AI must drive the units looking to conquer the province where it was generated. Must store the nationality that produced it, so if it's successful, the game engine will know what nationality the new civ formed will have.

Revolutionaries: The AI must drive the unit looking to conquer the civ's capital. Must store the regime that produced it, so if it's successful, the game engine will know what new regime is implemented in the new govt.

Rebels: The AI uses the unit depending on the Civ's Unrest Status. If "normal", looks to conquer the capital, just like the revolutionaries, but if "under civil war" switches to "conquer as many provinces as possible". Needs to store the social class that produced it so, if successful in capturing the capital or forming a new civ, the game engine will know what mentality the new govt must have.

Feudal Units: Little AI needed. The units simply stay in the province where they were created and defend the province from attacks. The existence of Feudal Units represent a powerful local warlord (see more on the Govt Model).

IX. Differences with Previous Version and Final Comments

The main difference with version 1.0 is the adaptation of PAF's and events to the structure (in terms of OO-code) conceived for ethnic groups and social classes. A PAF is now something a social class "has" and an event something it can "do". The model equations to compute PAF's and event probabilities now acknowledge this and the hierarchical relation of EG's and social classes and equations don't exist in "the vacuum" anymore.

There has been a refinement in modeling revolutions and civil wars, just to give them more flavor.

Some adjustments have been made to PAF's, individualizing in a better, more useful way the sources of discontent.

A new element is the "Circumstances Term". The old version was based exclusively in "structural" civ's problems. People would complain about autonomy or discriminations, but never about things happening in a certain moment. Now this will be possible.

An important change is now events probabilities use as input a summed version of PAF's. The old version handled probabilities individually for each PAF. This didn't modeled correctly how people in real life get mad by a combination of things, feeling that bad things are piling one on top of the other.

Finally, the introduction of Feudal Units in this model allows the Govt Model to model Feudalism.