Disaster Model v1.3

For convenience the 8 climate bands are rewritten here.

Arctic/ Sub arctic          (1,8)

Upper Temperate         (2,7)

Lower Temperate         (3,6)

Tropical                        (4,5)

Local Disaster Effects Chart

Most disasters will be stand-alone events. Some, however, like droughts and hurricanes may cause other disasters to happen. I’ll refer to these as “Cause and Effect” disasters. There is a percentage chance for “effect” disasters to be triggered by the “cause” disaster (% Chance to Trigger).

There will be different “levels” of disaster (from 1 to 10), generated for each disaster that occurs. For cause and effect disasters, the level of the effect disaster will be the same as the causing disaster.

Other models will determine the exact level for any given disaster. The map model will determine earthquake and volcano levels, while the climate/ecology model will determine flood, drought, and hurricane levels. The difference between the level of infrastructure needed and the level of current infrastructure will determine fire levels.

The percentages given below for population loss, crop loss and chance to trigger are the base numbers. To get the final value multiply the base by the level of the disaster. For example if there is a level 4 flood and a 2% was generated for population loss, then the final population loss would be 8%.

Note: Per turn percentage increases due to global warming affect the chance a disaster strikes per turn and its % Chance to Trigger on the chart below.

Disaster	Population Loss %	Crop Loss %	# Of Squares Affected	% Chance to Trigger	Effect Disaster
Flood	1-3%	1-5%	Level x 1-15 sqs. adjacent	Nil	Nil
Fire	1-4%	1-3%	1	Nil	Nil
Drought	N/A	1-10%	Level x 1-15 sqs. adjacent	1-2%	Fire
Hurricane	1-2%	1-5%	1	1-5%	Flood
Earthquake	1%	1-2%	1	**	Volcano & (Oceanic)--&Tsunami, if coastal
Volcano	1-10%	1-10%	1	**	Earthquake & (Oceanic) --&Tsunami, if coastal
*Oceanic Earthquake	1-10%***	1-10%***	1	**	Tsunami
*Oceanic Volcano	1-10%***	1-10%***	1	**	Tsunami
*Tsunami	1%	1-4%	***	Nil	Nil

*Ignore these if we do not use oceanic disasters.

**The map generator determines all percentage chances for this.

***See description for more information.

Disaster Descriptions

Flood:

Chance per turn: (% of water * # of major rivers) divided by 30 + (random # between -5 and +5), round all numbers up.

Note: The chance given is of a flood occurring somewhere in the world on any given turn. So there can only be one flood starting per turn maximum.

Occurs on any terrain except mountain & desert within climate zones 2 through 7. However they only occur within 2 squares of a river or a mountain range. The effects last one turn for levels 1-3, two turns for 4-7, and three turns for 8-10.

Fire:

Chance per turn: will be determined from level of water and housing infrastructure (?). The chance should probably be per province to keep calculations down, but only a certain number of squares within that province will be affected.

Fire can occur within any square that has a population of 50,000 or more. Their effects last for only one turn.

Level of Inf. # of squares

1 below needed 1

2 below needed 2

3 below needed 3

4 below needed 4

5 below needed 5

Drought:

Chance per turn: [(100 - % of water) * 30] divided by 30 + (random # between -5 and +5), round all numbers up.

Note. The chance given is of a drought occurring somewhere in the world on any given turn. So there can only be one drought starting per turn maximum.

Occurs on any terrain except mountain, jungle, and desert within climate zones 3 through 6. The effects last one turn for levels 1-3, two turns for 4-7, and three turns for 8-10.

Hurricane: (Note: up to 800 miles wide — or 22 squares)

Chance per turn: (% of water * # of major rivers) divided by 30 + (random # between -5 and +5), round all numbers up.

(Minimum of x ocean tiles in Climate zones 4 and 5)-for scenerios, the default should be no hurricanes, but the creator can activate them.

Hurricanes will begin in climate zones 4 or 5, in a map model designated “hurricane zone”, which is a 4 square area divided in half by the equator. When they appear there will be a hurricane “unit” placed on the map that will move (during the movement phase) towards the coast. They move in a northwesterly direction. Hurricanes will strike land the same turn they form, possibly sinking ships in their path (the ships will make some sort of seaworthiness check). The effects of the hurricane last one turn only, regardless of level.

-Note that we may not want to use the A* algorithm to move these hurricane “units” because they really shouldn’t travel in a straight path. -

Until the discovery of meteorology with sufficient radar technology, the hurricanes won’t be seen until it is too late, even then you are powerless to stop them, but people will evacuate (which means no economic production that turn) reducing the population loss to 0-1%.

Earthquake:

Chance per turn: Determined by map generator as is chance of triggering other quakes (oceanic or not) or volcano eruptions (oceanic or not).

The effects last for one turn.

Volcano:

Chance per turn: Determined by map generator as is chance of triggering other quakes (oceanic or not) or volcano eruptions (oceanic or not).

The effects last for one turn (except for the emissions, see pollution below).

Oceanic Earthquake:

Chance per turn: Determined by map generator as is chance of triggering other quakes (oceanic or not) or volcano eruptions (oceanic or not).

The effects last for one turn. The population and crop loss in the chart are for undersea cities, if we use them. The oceanic earthquakes can affect undersea cities up to 2 squares away. The reason for the losses possibly getting to 100% is that the earthquake may destroy the “bubble” or whatever that protects the city.

Oceanic Volcano:

Chance per turn: Determined by map generator as is chance of triggering other quakes (oceanic or not) or volcano eruptions (oceanic or not).

The effects last for one turn only. The population and crop loss in the chart are for undersea cities. The oceanic volcano can affect undersea cities up to 2 squares away. The reason for the losses possibly getting to 100% is that the volcano may destroy the “bubble” or whatever that protects the city.

Tsunami:

Chance per turn: Automatic, but only triggered by other disasters.

The tsunami will be centered on the location of the disaster that caused it, and will also be the same level as the disaster that caused it. It will travel out in all directions until it hits a coastline. There will be no visible effects until it reaches the coast. When it hits the coast it will have its effects for that turn and it will be over. Any ships along the coast or in harbor will have to make a seaworthiness check to see if they survive the wave.

Note: Largest recorded covered 500,000 sq. miles, that’s 143 squares.

Infrastructure Disaster Effects Chart

Base percentages are listed in the chart; multiply these by the level of the disaster to determine final damage.

Infrastructure	Flood	Fire	Hurricane	Earthquake	Volcano	*Tsunami
Education	3	1	3	3	4	1
Religion	1	1	2	2	2	1
Housing	10	10	10	10	10	5
Health/Water	8	1	10	10	10	1
Transportation	3	1	2	5	4	1
Recreation	2	2	2	3	2	2
Economic	6	2	5	8	5	3
Military	5	1	5	5	5	5

*Ignore if we do not use oceanic disasters.

Special Case Disasters

These disasters don’t follow the rules outlined above, each having it’s own effect.

Famine:

Chance per turn: N/A

(Famine can be handled on a provincial basis.) Much of the food a Civ can produce will be lost to insects, rodents, spoilage and fungus, amongst other things. New technology and infrastructure improvements will eliminate some of the loss.

The following will simulate this:

3 % is lost to insects and rodents in the field

3 % is lost to fungus and spoilage in the field

3 % is lost to insects and rodents in storage

3 % is lost to fungus and spoilage in storage

Crops from the field (those gained that turn, before any is eaten by the populace) are reduced by the "in the field" % above and for any natural disasters. Then the populace eats what is left, if there is extra it goes to storage, if there is not they eat from the storage, but not before the storage is reduced by the 2 "in storage" percentages above. A famine begins on the turn there is no food left in storage and there are people that still need to be fed. Those that could not be fed die that turn.

Pollution:

There are several different types of pollution and each has it’s own special rules outlined below:

-An oil spill (from downed vessels carrying oil) in the ocean prevents fishing in the square and a 25% reduction in fish production in all adjacent squares (including any rivers if adjacent). This lasts for one turn only.

-Radiation (from nuclear meltdowns and weapon detonations) causes increased death rates (+10-20%) from cancer and increased deformities. Also causes decreased crop output by 30-60% for the rest of the game. This affects a single square only.

-For smog to occur within a square, it must have industry and a population of at least 100,000 people. Smog (caused by factory output and vehicle emitions) causes increased death rates (+1-5%) due to increase in cancer. Any crops are also affected by a 3% decrease in production.

-Toxic waste (output from factories) causes increased death rates (+1-3%) due to contaminated water. Crops are also affected by a 3% decrease in production. Those directly on a river cause a 25% reduction in fish production within it. The first ocean square at the mouth of the river and all adjacent to it is also affected in the same way. All squares adjacent to the polluted river suffer the same % increase in death rates and decreased crop production.

Global Warming

Global Warming is the result of industry, volcanic, fire and population (vehicles and such) emitions. There will be a pooled world total of all these emitions, with different levels of effects.